Global Sugar Market Trends 2026
The global sugar market in 2026 is shifting fast — from tight supplies in recent years to a clear surplus outlook.
Production is climbing to record levels. Prices are under pressure. Ethanol demand and weather patterns are reshaping supply flows.
For food manufacturers, beverage producers, confectionery companies, and bulk buyers, these trends directly affect sourcing costs, contract timing, and risk management.
This article breaks down the global sugar market trends 2026 — production forecasts, price outlook, key drivers, and what it means for B2B procurement.
Record Global Production Forecast for 2025/26
Global sugar production is set to reach historic highs.
The USDA projects 189.3 million metric tons (raw value) for the 2025/26 season (October–September), up 4.6% year-on-year.
Main drivers:
- Brazil: Expected output around 44–45 million tons (Center-South region leading). Strong cane crush and higher sugar mix early in the season.
- India: Production rebounding sharply to 31–35 million tons after favorable monsoons and reduced ethanol diversion.
- Thailand: Steady increase to ~10–11 million tons.
- EU & others: Stable to slightly higher beet output.
This surge follows years of tighter balances. The shift to surplus is the biggest story for 2026.
Learn how to choose the right sugar grade for your needs →
Large Surplus Expected – Prices Under Pressure
With production outpacing consumption, analysts forecast a global surplus of 3–8 million tons in 2025/26 (estimates vary: USDA ~11 Mt production over consumption, others 2.7–4.7 Mt).
Key points:
- Consumption growth remains modest (~1–1.5% y/y), driven by population and emerging markets.
- Ending stocks are rising (USDA projects ~41–44 million tons).
- Prices have already fallen sharply in 2025 (raw #11 down 17–20% in some periods).
Outlook for 2026:
- Bearish pressure likely to continue through peak harvest (Q2–Q3 2026).
- Possible short-term tightness in Q1 2026 (off-crop period in Brazil).
- Long-term: Surplus may ease in 2026/27 if low prices discourage production or ethanol takes more cane.
USDA Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook
Brazil – Still the Market Maker
Brazil dominates global sugar flows (21% production, ~45% exports).
2025/26 Center-South output: ~40–45 million tons sugar (depending on mix).
2026/27 outlook: Slightly lower (~41–43 million tons) as mills may shift more cane to ethanol if sugar prices stay depressed.
Ethanol parity remains key — low sugar prices encourage ethanol production, which could tighten sugar supply later in 2026/27.
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India – Rebound & Export Uncertainty
India’s 2025/26 production is recovering strongly (31–35 million tons) after drought-affected seasons.
Lower ethanol diversion (due to policy and pricing) could free up more sugar for domestic use or export.
Government export quotas will decide how much reaches the world market — a key variable for 2026 prices.
Other Key Players
- Thailand: Steady growth (~10–11 million tons). Exports remain competitive.
- EU: Stable beet output. Focus on domestic use and sustainability.
- China: Higher production (~12 million tons) helps offset import needs.
Ethanol Demand & Its Impact on Sugar
Brazil and India mills switch between sugar and ethanol based on relative profitability.
Low sugar prices → more cane to ethanol → potential supply relief later.
High ethanol demand (biofuels policy) pulls cane away from sugar → tighter supply.
In 2026, low prices may favor ethanol, helping balance the surplus over time.
FAO Food Outlook – Sugar Section
Sustainability & Ethical Sourcing Trends
Buyers increasingly demand:
- Bonsucro or equivalent certification
- Traceable supply chains
- Low water use and deforestation-free cane
- Fair labor practices
Beet sugar often has a better sustainability profile in temperate zones.
Cane producers in Brazil are improving via Bonsucro and renewable energy use in mills.
Read about quality assurance in commodity trading →
What It Means for Buyers in 2026
- Prices: Likely to stay soft through mid-2026. Good window for forward contracts.
- Availability: Very good physical supply — fewer shortages expected.
- Risks: Weather events or policy changes (India exports, Brazil mix) can cause volatility.
- Strategy: Diversify origins, lock in pricing when possible, prioritize certified suppliers.
Conclusion
The global sugar market in 2026 is defined by record production and a clear surplus.
Brazil and India lead the supply surge. Prices face downward pressure. Ethanol demand and weather remain wildcards.
For buyers, 2026 offers opportunity — abundant supply, softer pricing, and time to secure long-term contracts.
At The World Merchants, we help you navigate these trends. We supply certified ICUMSA sugar grades from multiple origins with full traceability and reliable logistics.
Need to lock in supply or explore options?
Contact us today for a market update and personalized quote.
Stay ahead in a shifting market.
FAQs – Global Sugar Market Trends 2026
1. Why are sugar prices under pressure in 2026?
Answer: Record global production and a projected surplus for 2025/26 are pushing prices down, with output exceeding consumption growth.
2. Which countries are driving the production increase?
Answer: Major contributors include Brazil, India, and Thailand, all reporting strong output rebounds.
3. What role does ethanol play in sugar supply?
Answer: In Brazil and India, mills can switch between sugar and ethanol production. Lower sugar prices may encourage more ethanol output, potentially tightening sugar supply later.
4. What does the USDA forecast for 2025/26 production?
Answer: The United States Department of Agriculture projects global sugar production at around 189 million metric tons (raw value), a record high.
5. What should bulk buyers do in 2026?
Answer: Take advantage of softer prices, diversify sourcing origins, monitor policy changes (especially export rules), and consider forward contracts to manage risk.
